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  1. #1
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    The Speed of Progression...

    Rate of change is now truly - exponential...

    New Energy Department Battery Target: Shocking Drop To $60 / kWh

    :^)
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  2. #2
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    Hemissary;

    Interesting article, knowing the cost of KW in 2009 was $1200 then the department of energy drops its target to $60/kwh.
    I believe it is equally interesting to see how fast the technical side of EV will develop in the sense of asking questions such as
    Driving at 55mph is the most efficient speed for gas powered engines, is it still valid for EV as well?
    Common sense tells us the race will be shifted from the highest MPG to something like the longest driving range distance.
    I suspect the mechanical/repair side to be of some challenge especially for the average mechanic.
    I also wonder if we will witness a day where we can say: Gasoline/diesel engines NO MORE !
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  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillB1 View Post
    Hemissary;

    Interesting article, knowing the cost of KW in 2009 was $1200 then the department of energy drops its target to $60/kwh.
    I believe it is equally interesting to see how fast the technical side of EV will develop in the sense of asking questions such as
    Driving at 55mph is the most efficient speed for gas powered engines, is it still valid for EV as well?
    Common sense tells us the race will be shifted from the highest MPG to something like the longest driving range distance.
    I suspect the mechanical/repair side to be of some challenge especially for the average mechanic.
    I also wonder if we will witness a day where we can say: Gasoline/diesel engines NO MORE !
    I find the rate-of-change fascinating. Efficiency is relative to the body or entity's measuring device :^)

    Increase in range is a product of technical advancement:

    Range Improvements Remain One Of Our Main Priorities

    Here's another exponential change in motion:

    Electrify America Opens 600th Charging Station In Less Than 3 Years

    Note the above charge stations are powered by renewables:

    All Supercharger Energy Will Be Renewable In 2021




  4. #4
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    Yes Truly amazing endeavor.
    In the last article, I found this of particular interest: Can Tesla do it? Do you believe this will apply to all areas across the globe, or just to those that Lange is responsible for?

    Well? My guess is that:
    1. Judging by the amazing rate of change, I believe Tesla can and will do it.
    2. How much will it cost to fill up an EV? in this case Fill up=fully charged I guess.
    3. This quantum leap into the future: are we going to have two camps, the haves and the have nots? (from Technology perspectives)

    Or this technology will be readily available lets say to third world/poor countries?



  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillB1 View Post
    Yes Truly amazing endeavor.
    In the last article, I found this of particular interest: Can Tesla do it? Do you believe this will apply to all areas across the globe, or just to those that Lange is responsible for?

    Well? My guess is that:
    1. Judging by the amazing rate of change, I believe Tesla can and will do it.
    2. How much will it cost to fill up an EV? in this case Fill up=fully charged I guess.
    3. This quantum leap into the future: are we going to have two camps, the haves and the have nots? (from Technology perspectives)

    Or this technology will be readily available lets say to third world/poor countries?



    As costs decrease, everyone will be able to purchase an EV. You would not(!) believe what is going on in China on the EV front (Tesla sales doubled in 2020), they are outstripping the world installing developing and installing solar / wind renewables. Interestingly, their military won't allow Tesla's at any military installation, believing their onboard camera systems are spy cars :^D

    This'll knock your socks off:

    The 4D Chess Move Elon Musk & Tesla Just Made

    “An amazing Trojan horse strategy that’s going to see Tesla become one of the world’s largest distributors of utilities and disrupt hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars of revenue, from the energy sector over the next few decades.”
    Last edited by Hemissary; 05-04-2021 at 11:53 AM.

  6. #6
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    Reading through (The 4D Chess Move) I had to pose on this one:
    Once Tesla achieves a 3 TWh battery production capability,
    it will change the entire face of the energy and power delivery system.
    And this is why Tesla is
    a threat to the fossil fuel industry giants that dominate the energy industry.

    Wait a minute !
    Do you see that word THREAT in red?
    whether they talking perceived or real; That kind of threat means, in my opinion,
    the emergence of new international players, in the not too far future.
    To elaborate, countries like Australia, Bolivia, Chili, and China have vast amounts of Lithium as a natural resource.
    My guess is that, some of these countries will replace today's energy producing countries
    such as Saudi Arabia (or simply have their own LITHIUM- OPEC)
    Having said that,
    I am more interested in exploring the best and the worse possible scenarios;
    One possible scenario?
    What will happen, IF and/or WHEN the oil becomes LESS relevant to dollar's monetary value?
    Will a country like the US cuddle or hug lithium Bolivia as it does with fossil Saudi Arabia?

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillB1 View Post
    Reading through (The 4D Chess Move) I had to pose on this one:
    Once Tesla achieves a 3 TWh battery production capability,
    it will change the entire face of the energy and power delivery system.
    And this is why Tesla is
    a threat to the fossil fuel industry giants that dominate the energy industry.

    Wait a minute !
    Do you see that word THREAT in red?
    whether they talking perceived or real; That kind of threat means, in my opinion,
    the emergence of new international players, in the not too far future.
    To elaborate, countries like Australia, Bolivia, Chili, and China have vast amounts of Lithium as a natural resource.
    My guess is that, some of these countries will replace today's energy producing countries
    such as Saudi Arabia (or simply have their own LITHIUM- OPEC)
    Having said that,
    I am more interested in exploring the best and the worse possible scenarios;
    One possible scenario?
    What will happen, IF and/or WHEN the oil becomes LESS relevant to dollar's monetary value?
    Will a country like the US cuddle or hug lithium Bolivia as it does with fossil Saudi Arabia?
    Upsetting the electrical energy supply status quo / monopolies, which will drive end-user costs down with over-supply. It's great to watch disrupting technology spank the status quo / stick-in-the-muds :^)

    And yes; if you're not leading the pack with your own renewable self-sufficiencies, there will be motivation to cozy up to those who do...

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillB1 View Post
    To elaborate, countries like Australia, Bolivia, Chili, and China have vast amounts of Lithium as a natural resource.
    My guess is that, some of these countries will replace today's energy producing countries
    such as Saudi Arabia (or simply have their own LITHIUM- OPEC)
    Does anyone actually believe Lithium is the pinnacle in battery technology?
    Terry

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  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by RT NOMAD View Post
    Does anyone actually believe Lithium is the pinnacle in battery technology?
    ​Who implied it was / is?

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by RT NOMAD View Post
    Does anyone actually believe Lithium is the pinnacle in battery technology?
    Hard to tell, there's no easy way to answer this one.
    Some predicts Lithium will run out by 2025, others will argue that all of powered devices (cell phone, PCs etc.)
    are no more than a drop in the ocean compared to heavy SUV vehicle.

    The question is where they'll get all the needed Lithium?
    it's not as rare as gold, but it takes some mining work to extract, the lithium market is fairly new.
    More demand will lead to more lithium extraction, but it will most likely outgrow the supply.
    Remember, lithium, unlike oil, it has many substitutes that can be used to make batteries,
    plus great deal of the EV R&D had to do with cleaner energy and zero carbon emission.

    My guess is that many investors will jump on board in addition to government subsidies to boast R&D
    where they may come up with some kind of "UNKOWN" technology where a mixed approach makes more sense,
    such approach may take the form of using a very low, very safe form level of Fossil, thus bridging the lithium shortage/gap.
    Conversely, they may decide that the whole notion of "zero carbon emission" is a political slogan,
    a goal which was not grounded in scientific work and start a new approach to meet all energy demands while protecting the planet.

  11. #11
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    I keep having notions they may make these cars with modular batteries that can be swapped out in minutes or less. A hatch is opened and batteries are swapped out. Possible?
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  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by gapi View Post
    I keep having notions they may make these cars with modular batteries that can be swapped out in minutes or less. A hatch is opened and batteries are swapped out. Possible?
    They are now gapi :^)

    There's some work involved though to R&R, as they must be physically integral to surrounding structure to ensure vehicle accident integrity...
    Last edited by Hemissary; 05-04-2021 at 07:06 PM.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by gapi View Post
    I keep having notions they may make these cars with modular batteries that can be swapped out in minutes or less. A hatch is opened and batteries are swapped out. Possible?
    It is very possible, I read about a startup company located in Silicone valley called AMPLE
    they saying they're working with several automakers to build battery-swapping stations to work with EV battery structures,
    the swap includes battery modules and packs and it will take 10 minutes only.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillB1 View Post
    It is very possible, I read about a startup company located in Silicone valley called AMPLE
    they saying they're working with several automakers to build battery-swapping stations to work with EV battery structures,
    the swap includes battery modules and packs and it will take 10 minutes only.

    Agreed; if only(!) marketeers between marques - would actually cooperate in the best interests of end-users and the environment!

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hemissary View Post

    Agreed; if only(!) marketeers between marques - would actually cooperate in the best interests of end-users and the environment!
    hmm !!
    I am going to rewrite your (if) in capitals (IF)
    because I sincerely wish and want to believe, cooperation happens for the best interest of the end-user
    ( us the consumers)
    Contrary to conventional wisdom, auto makers are riding the EV wave for different reasons.
    Nothing makes us happier than seeing and believing these guys are really working
    together for the interest of consumers and/or the environment.

    Simon, with your permission allow me for just an off-topic example/point 2 below:

    1. Remember the 80s, the old good days? Sure you do.
    In the 80s, every single marque wanted to ride the SUV marketing waive;
    tactical Humvees in malls, 5 series gets muscled up to X5, Nissan did not know what a Murano was!
    Let it sink for a minutes and ask yourself: What happened to the environment?
    so much for that, but you see where am going with this.

    2. More recent, covid-19 vaccines,
    again, I really want to believe these guys at the helm of Pharmaceutical industry
    somehow somewhat care to cooperate in the best of our interests.
    As sad as it may sound, and by all means am not a pessimist,
    my feeling is that the sole purpose is profit, self-preservation, and corporate survival.
    In this case we all consumers. would I take oxford AstraZeneca? Absolutely not.

    The negative assertion above, in my humble opinion, holds true for both:
    automakers and pharmaceutical industries.

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